According to a new report released by the WBMS at 23rd July, there will be a supply shortage of 655,000 tons of aluminum in the global aluminum market from January to May 2021. In 2020, there will be an oversupply of 1.174 million tons.
In May 2021, the global aluminum market consumption was 6.0565 million tons.
From January to May of 2021, global aluminum demand was 29.29 million tons, compared with 26.545 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 2.745 million tons year-on-year.
In May 2021, global aluminum production was 5.7987 million tons, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year.
As of the end of May 2021, the global aluminum market inventory was 233 thousand tons.
The calculated market balance for primary aluminium for the period of January to May 2021 was a deficit of 655 kt which follows a surplus of 1174 kt recorded for the whole of 2020. Demand for primary aluminium for January to May 2021 was 29.29 million tonnes, 2745 kt more than in the comparable period in 2020. Demand is measured on an apparent basis and national lockdowns may have distorted the trade statistics. Production in January to May 2021 rose by 5.5 per cent. Total reported stocks fell in May to close at the end of the period 233 kt below the December 2020 level. Total LME stocks (Including off warrant stocks) were 2576.9 kt at the end of May 2021 which compares with 2916.9 kt at the end of 2020. Shanghai stocks rose in the first three months of the year but fell slightly in April and May ending the period 104 kt above the December 2020 total. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for large unreported stock changes especially those held in Asia.
Overall, global production rose in January to May 2021 by 5.5 per cent compared with the first five months of 2020. Chinese output was estimated at 16335 kt despite slightly lower availability of imported feedstocks and this currently accounts for about 57 per cent of the world production total. Chinese apparent demand was 15 per cent higher than in January to May 2020 and the output of semi-manufactures rose by 15 per cent compared with the revised production data for the early months of 2020. China became a net importer of unwrought aluminium in 2020. During January to May 2021 Chinese net exports of aluminium semi manufactures were 1884 kt which compares with 1786 kt for January to May 2020. Exports of semi manufactures rose by 7 per cent compared with the January to May 2020 total
Production for January to May in the EU28 was 6.7 per cent lower than the previous year and NAFTA output decreased by 0.8 per cent. EU28 demand was 117 kt higher than the comparable 2020 total. Global demand rose by 10.3 per cent during January to May 2021 compared with the levels recorded one year previously.
In May primary aluminium production was 5798.7 kt and demand was 6056.5 kt.